The Lineup | Subscription Platform Economics

Premium SVOD YoY Growth

First time in single digits

Bundle Penetration

27%

+13pp from Q4 2023

Category Avg Monthly Churn

4.6%

Netflix at 2.0%, ~2.3x better (Antenna, Dec 2025)

Win-Back Rate (12mo)

42%

2024 cancel cohorts resubscribing (Antenna)

Premium SVOD Growth Deceleration

Year-over-year growth rate approaching maturity inflection (Antenna series, through Q4 2025; latest published)

Bundle Penetration Trajectory

Share of total subscriptions held in multi-service bundles (Antenna series, through Q4 2025; latest published)

Research Coverage Universe

Platform	Research Focus	Key Metric Tracked	Analytical Output	Status
NFLX	Subscriber economics, ad-tier growth, M&A viability	$12.56B Q2 2026 rev, 2.0% churn	10,000-word acquisition analysis + quarterly model	Active
DIS	Bundle retention, ESPN DTC launch, parks yield	$29.99/mo ESPN, $1.33B DTC income	Bundle retention model + content event tracker	Active
SPOT	Gross margin expansion, pricing power, format mix	33.0% GM (Q1 2026), targeting 35-40%	Margin trajectory model + price sensitivity	Active
CMCSA	Versant spin-off, broadband retention, Peacock scaling	68/32 segment mix post-spin	RemainCo re-rating thesis + spin analysis	Active
WBD	Acquisition target analysis, content library valuation	~$111B PSKY deal pending; TRO Jul 20	Netflix-WBD viability analysis (10,000 words)	Pending PSKY close
PSKY	Content-driven acquisition, bundle conversion (Paramount+)	2.9M sign-ups (Landman S1, Antenna)	Content event impact tracking	Active
NYT	Subscription platform economics, perception lag	13.1M subscribers (Q1 2026)	Perception Lag framework case study	Active
LION	Post-Starz SOTP, frustrated bidder dynamics	Content library arbitrage	SOTP valuation + M&A scenario model	Active

Netflix Q2 2026 Revenue

$12.56B

+13.4% YoY (reported Jul 16, 2026)

Netflix 2026 Ad Revenue Guide

~$3B

FY25 grew 2.5x to $1.5B+; ~2x guide reaffirmed Jul 2026

Spotify Gross Margin

33.0%

Q1 2026; targeting 35-40%

Disney DTC Operating Income

$1.33B

FY2025; FQ2-26 streaming margin hit 10.6%

Operating Margin Comparison

Netflix structural advantage vs. legacy media peers

Spotify Margin Expansion Trajectory

Gross margin path from podcast/audiobook economics

Netflix Content Investment Mix

Content spend as competitive moat (author's estimated allocation, Q1 2026 vintage)

Platform Pricing Landscape

Platform	Base Tier	Premium Tier	Bundle Offer	Recent Change
NFLX	$8.99 (ads)	$26.99	N/A (standalone)	All US tiers raised Mar 26, 2026 (~11% avg)
DIS	$11.99 (D+ w/ ads)	$29.99 (ESPN Unltd)	Trio w/ ESPN Unltd $35.99 ($29.99 was launch promo)	Oct 2025 price increase; ESPN DTC live since Aug 2025
SPOT	Free (ad-supported)	$12.99 (Individual)	Audiobooks 15hr included	Feb 2026 hike ($11.99 to $12.99); NA subs dipped after
CMCSA	$10.99 (Premium w/ ads)	$16.99 (Premium Plus)	Xfinity broadband bundle; Select tier $7.99	Jul 2025 price increase; NBA rights ($2.45B/yr)

Netflix Monthly Churn

2.0%

~2.3x better than category avg (4.6%, Antenna)

Netflix Subscriber LTV (US)

$388

Industry avg ~$140

Bundle Churn Reduction

59%

Multi-service vs. standalone

3+ Format Engagement LTV

$647

+67% vs. single-format users

Churn Rate by Platform

Monthly churn (lower = stickier); Antenna estimates, mid-2026 readings (Peacock peaked ~9% in Q1 2026)

Netflix LTV by Engagement Depth

Subscriber lifetime value scales with multi-format usage (author's model, Q1 2026 vintage)

12-Month Survival Curves: Bundle vs. Standalone

Modeled retention trajectory showing bundle attach rate impact on subscriber longevity (author's model, Q1 2026 vintage)

Landman S1 Sign-Ups (90 days)

2.9M

Paramount+ content-driven acquisition (Antenna); S2 added 915K

Spotify Video Re-Stream Lift

+34%

Post-music-video engagement

Comcast Feb 2026 Trifecta

~$2.2B

Incremental Media revenue reported Q1 2026; ad rev +135%

Hulu+Live TV / Fubo Combined Subs

~6M

Closed Oct 2025; Disney holds ~70%

Content-Driven Acquisition Events

Sign-ups within 90 days of premiere; Landman S1 per Antenna, others author's estimates

Rapid-Response Analysis Coverage

Breaking market events requiring same-week analytical turnaround

Breaking Event Analysis Log

Date	Event	Platform(s)	Impact Assessment	Analysis Type
Aug 2025	ESPN Unlimited Launch ($29.99)	DIS	DTC burn-the-boats moment; 47,000 live events	Pricing + cannibalization model
Sep 2025	Jimmy Kimmel Controversy	DIS	Churn spike from politically-driven cancellations	Content risk + churn event analysis
Oct 2025	Hulu+Live TV / Fubo Combination Closes	DIS	Disney holds ~70% of combined company; ~6M NA subscribers	M&A impact + bundle analysis
Jan 2026	Comcast-Versant Spin-Off	CMCSA	RemainCo re-rating: 68/32 segment mix unlocked; VSNT trading Jan 5	Spin-off thesis + SOTP model
Feb 2026	PSKY-WBD Definitive Agreement ($31/share)	WBD NFLX	~$111B all-asset deal; PSKY paid Netflix's $2.8B termination fee from the broken Dec 2025 agreement	Deal analysis + NFLX windfall impact
Feb 2026	Comcast "Legendary February"	CMCSA	SB LX + Milan Cortina + NBA ASG delivered ~$2.2B incremental Media revenue (vs $1.48B 2022 baseline); ad revenue +135%	Revenue comp vs. 2022, closed out with Q1 actuals
Feb 2026	Spotify Price Increase ($11.99 to $12.99)	SPOT	~$648M annual revenue uplift (author's estimate); NA Premium subs declined post-hike	Price sensitivity + margin model update
Mar 2026	Netflix Raises All US Tiers (~11% avg)	NFLX	First-ever ad-tier increase (+$1 to $8.99); Standard $19.99, Premium $26.99	Tracked (Jul 2026 refresh)
Apr 2026	Netflix Q1 2026 Earnings	NFLX	Revenue $12.25B +16%; EPS doubled on the $2.8B PSKY termination fee; Hastings exits board; stock -9%	Tracked (Jul 2026 refresh)
Apr 2026	WBD Shareholders Approve PSKY Deal	WBD	1.743B shares for vs 16.3M against; exec exit pay rejected; Q3 2026 target close	Tracked (Jul 2026 refresh)
Apr 2026	Spotify Q1 2026 Earnings	SPOT	293M Premium (+3M), record operating income; NA subs contracted post-hike; stock -13.5%	Tracked (Jul 2026 refresh)
May 2026	Disney FY26 Q2 Earnings	DIS	Disney+/Hulu operating income +88% to $582M; first double-digit streaming margin (10.6%)	Tracked (Jul 2026 refresh)
Jun 2026	Fox to Acquire Roku ($160/share, ~$22B EV)	Fox / Roku	Content-plus-CTV-platform consolidation; Tubi + Roku Channel ad scale; close expected H1 2027	Tracked (Jul 2026 refresh)
Jun 2026	Comcast to Spin Off NBCUniversal + Sky	CMCSA	Second structural separation in six months; Peacock exits the cable parent (~1-year timeline)	Tracked (Jul 2026 refresh)
Jul 2026	Netflix Q2 2026 Earnings	NFLX	Revenue $12.56B +13.4% (slight miss), light Q3 guide, fewer engagement metrics; 52-week low	Tracked (Jul 2026 refresh)
Jul 2026	World Cup Final Sets US Streaming Records	Fox / Peacock / Telemundo	62.8M combined US viewers; Peacock/Telemundo streaming +297% vs 2022; drove Peacock's first profit	Tracked (Jul 2026 refresh)
Jul 2026	12 State AGs Sue to Block PSKY-WBD; 14-Day TRO	WBD	Federal judge pauses close; hearing Aug 3; state antitrust now the binding constraint	Tracked (Jul 2026 refresh)
Jul 2026	EU Clears PSKY-WBD With Concessions	WBD	International approvals complete; close now gated on US state litigation	Tracked (Jul 2026 refresh)
Jul 2026	Comcast Q2 2026: Peacock's First Profit	CMCSA	Peacock $189M EBITDA, +2M subs to 48M, revenue $1.9B on the World Cup	Tracked (Jul 2026 refresh)

Methodology: This dashboard represents an independent research practice maintained since early 2025. Data sources include company earnings releases, SEC filings, syndicated industry reports (including Antenna's Premium SVOD 2025 Year in Review), and original modeling. All subscriber economics models use publicly available quarterly disclosures as inputs. Python pipelines (pandas, API integrations) automate data collection from financial APIs with quarterly refresh cadences. Market figures were re-verified against company reports and published Antenna data on July 23, 2026; modeled series (LTV, survival curves, content-spend allocation) carry their vintage in their chart subtitles, and event-log rows added in the July 2026 refresh are labeled as tracked rather than claimed as published analyses.

Coverage: 8 companies tracked with documented assumptions, defined review criteria, and structured analytical output totaling 50,000+ words across thesis documents, viability analyses, and event-driven research.

Contact: Reid Nelson | reidnelson3363@outlook.com | Austin, TX